Ranking the contestants on American Idol

American Idol - airing Fridays at 8.30pm and Saturdays at 7.30pm, on TV2 - is easily the most popular of the talent contests we see each year, with each series generally producing one or two stars. Well, except last year.

After an audition process that seemed to go on for months, and produced around six hours of programming a week, this year's batch of contestants has been whittled down to the Top 13.

Since I like going on record with my zany predictions, purely so people can throw my inaccuracies back in my face when I'm proven wrong later, I've decided to rank the remaining 13 prospective idols and see how close I get to the final results.

For added fun I've included the gambling figures from Bet US - these figures are based on a $100 wager; if a contestant is placed at +2300 and you gamble $100, you would get back $2300 if they win. Those with the lowest figure are considered "favourites". Sadly, we can't bet on American Idol here in New Zealand. Not that I would, anyway.

Here is my list of predictions, in reverse order:

13. Ashthon Jones: I've put Ashthon last because she was eliminated on Saturday, but I would've placed her last anyway - she has a weird look in her eye and her afro was just a little too unkempt at times. Ashthon's early elimination is also an ominous sign for the other wildcard picks, Stefano and Naima. Bet US odds: +2600

12. Haley Reinhart: She cracked the bottom three on Friday, and for good reason: she chose a terrible yodelling song, and she just stood there. Lock it in: she'll be out next week. Bet US odds: +2500

11. Stefano Langone: A dance remix of Stevie Wonder wasn't the best song choice, and he didn't really do anything more than what every contestant should be doing at this point. That's probably why he needed to be rescued with a wildcard pick last week. Bet US odds: +2000

10. Karen Rodriguez: First, she didn't sound good singing in the lower register, and didn't hit the high notes either. Second, her unabashed idolatry of ill-fated Mexican singer Selena is just weird, right? Bet US odds: +1500

9. Paul McDonald: Terrible, terrible song choice on Friday night - my theory is that the contestants have to pick songs to show off their voice in the early rounds to secure some good feeling among viewers, and that raspy Ryan Adams song just didn't cut it for me. That said, I see plenty of room for improvement. Bet US odds: +700

8. Naima Adedapo: The best of the three wild card picks, Naima should make a bit of noise in the early rounds but will eventually fall to the same fate that saw her missing the top 10 on viewer votes. Bet US odds: +2000

7. Scott McCreery: I realise country music is huge in the States, but doesn't it seem like anyone who adopts a Garth Brooks-ian personality will be voted out before the late stages of the competition? Bet US odds: +500

6. Jacob Lusk: I don't know what to make of Jacob - despite the fact that he was all over the place on Friday ("pitchy, dawg"), he has a great gospel style voice and I'm dubious about whether he'll be able to translate that to wider appeal and approval. Bet US odds: +700

5. Thia Megia: She has a smooth voice, but that jazzy change she went with on Friday was just goofy. I'm just not sure if she'll be able to hang with the next few on my list when it comes down to the crunch of the final six to eight rounds. Bet US odds: +600

4. James Durbin: I think James' main problem is that he just doesn't have a natural sounding voice - as good as he is, he seems to be repeating some kind of learned behaviour. He does have incredible range, though, and has enough similarity to successful runner-up Adam Lambert that he should do pretty well, if he can improve. Bet US odds: +400

3. Lauren Alaina: She doesn't have the best voice in the competition, but she makes up for her vocal shortcomings with a strong stage presence. Bet US odds: +400 (by the way, Lauren is currently listed as the favourite at Bet US)

2. Casey Abrams: He might be the best all-around singer among the guys, though he lost control of his voice a little during the rowdier moments of With a Little Help from My Friends. Casey should land among the top tier by the final few rounds. Also, he has a helluva beard. Bet US odds: +500

1. Pia Toscano: My favourite contestant and the best singer in the entire competition. Pia is also the best-looking girl - and the recipient of many a creepy leer from Steven Tyler. Barring a meltdown or personal catastrophe, Pia should absolutely win this series. If she doesn't, feel free to remind me of this blog post. Bet US odds: +400

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Are you watching American Idol this year? Who is your favourite to win the competition? Any contestants you'd like to see go on to major success? Also, I'm curious: would you ever bet on the outcome of a television talent show?

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